It aims instead to complete his small pig

Impossible, now deny: is rigorous. Despite scholarly skins of Bercy experts, despite the proactive message issued yesterday by Nicolas Sarkozy in Toulon, the budget presented to Ministers, MPs and journalists relieve inevitably the winey fragrance. The rigour, but also is. It is more cold outside in public finances still cozy house. A blizzard blows on the French economy, come not from the North but at the same time in the West with the US financial crisis, the East with the oil boom of the South with the prices of raw materials... and the Interior with the euro's rise and fall of the real estate. Impossible, in these conditions, view the hope of greater than 1 growth next year.

Why so if soft growth Simply because nothing is firm. Exports French industrialists were already losing ground in a world in full boom with a euro to $ 1.20. They will be the penalty in a universe become more chaotic with a European currency which is worth about 1.50 dollar and could be kicked to 1.70 or 1.80 new crisis of confidence across the Atlantic. The investment Difficult to expect a blow of Accelerator then demand slows, that money is more expensive, that funding will become more uncertain. Even if the effort of equipment companies has been disappointing in recent years, with an increase of 16 in three years, against 25 at the end of the 1980s and the 1990s. The expenditure of the State Already, the public deficit will exceed 3 of GDP next year. The French cicada having once more Sung throughout the summer, it is again very devoid, in contrast, for example, of her cousins Spanish or German.

Remains so that the consumer to save growth. But the hangover. On the first half of the year, it has not increased its purchases. In August, he purchased less than industrial products a year earlier. Lack of money. Purchasing power is almost more which means that it drops to millions of homes. And yet... There is a huge reservoir that remains untapped, a tank of 200 billion euros. Again this year, the French will save more than 15 of their income. Absolute record of all OECD countries! With just a little less money aside, without even breaking their Sicav cherished, they could consume much more. A drop of 2 points of the savings rate would bring 25 billion in economic circuits.

For Nicolas Sarkozy, there is a treasure that it is imperative to mobilize. The State should spend less, the individual more. This is even an obsession with the President. In 1994, when he was Secretary of State for the budget of Edouard Balladur, he decided an early disbursement of participation to support consumption. In 2004, became Minister of the economy, he resumed the same extent. At the Elysee Palace, he has launched again a release engagement and participation, currently under consideration in Parliament. The message is clear: French, English, break your piggy bank!

But the consumer resistance. It aims instead to complete his small pig. First for two cyclical reasons. The worry of unemployment, which may initiate a rebound after six months of stability and three months of decline. It is also concerned about the rise in prices, eroding the value of her savings (in contrast, the great French savings rate decrease, from 21 in 1980 to 11 in 1988, had been parallel to the dramatic slowdown of inflation). Economists talk about "real balances effect."

The French have two more profound reasons to sit on their pile of gold. On the one hand, the public deficit. Well, they feel that the deficit of today will be future debt and repayments of tomorrow. In other words, they will eventually go to the pot. Experts speak of "Ricardian equivalence", the name of English 19th century Economist David Ricardo, between the present increase in public debt and the future tax increases. The bank HSBC France have shown in recent work that an increase in the budget deficit by 1 point of GDP would lower the growth in consumption of more than 1 point. In other words, the French are not naive. They know that the tax without the public spending cuts, practiced by rulers of right and left more than 20 years, is only illusion. The flock of new taxes invented these months, after the generous measures of the fiscal package of 2007, little risk to change opinion.

On the other hand, the French still do not have confidence in the future of pensions. Indeed, there has been reform 1993 Balladur, reform Fillon of 2003, the adjustment of 2008. There was also the work of the COR. This orientation of the pensions Board conducted a remarkable, extremely rare work in France, to forge a broad consensus on the issue. It shows that it is possible to preserve reasonable if act regularly pension and firmly. But the French are always skeptical. They see to enlarge the generations of baby boomers starting to retire (800,000 per year, against 500,000 a few years ago). They refuse the idea of working after 60 years. They doubt much of the enormity of the amounts involved. Two years ago, the Insee published a work (1) evaluating the "implied commitments" of pension plans, those who do not appear in the official accounts. Depending on the selected calculation, this hidden debt is 139 of GDP (twice the public debt "explicit") to... 470 of GDP. It seems that it is higher in France than in most other developed countries.

Noting the failure of the authorities to control the deficit, stumbling on the persistent opacity of pensions, the consumer draws a simple and finally logical conclusion: it is better to have money aside. It will reduce its savings when it deems that the State finally masters his finances and that the future of pensions is insured. Then, the rigor in consumption may yield to the force. It is simple. But not all easy.