The Germany also made statements to this effect

Euro area States begin to prepare their plan for 2010 funding. Investors fear a new flood of State bonds, which would be detrimental to the bond market. Ciaran O'Hagan in Société Générale is point point.

As several other banks, you finalize your scenario on the emissions of debt in 2010. Isn't this a little early

It is early indeed, but not premature. We did so because we are seeing some concern on the part of investors over the next year. They urge issues. Our forecast for the euro area are based on an assumption of high unemployment, scarce tax revenues and sustained public spending. In other words, we start on the idea of an increase in the deficit in 2010, 7.3 of GDP on average, in an environment of weak growth. But Governments can surprise us showing more disciplined. The Germany also made statements to this effect. The problem is that the German legislative elections can disrupt the deal. On the other hand, one of the points of uncertainty, we have yet no element with respect to the great French loan. Finally, several States may have recourse to the pre-financing year. Small euro-zone countries, including, but also the France.

You think that the debt fundraising will still increase next year. Will the market able to absorb the influx of titles

The euro zone should raise 840 billion euros in the market, through medium-and long-term securities. This represents approximately 40 billion more than in 2009. It is not extraordinary, as the debt guaranteed by States should reflow. The amount of emissions weighs little on massive liquidity injected by the European Central Bank (ECB) in the financial system. These funds are partly used by banks to purchase State paper. The application is so fed. In addition, we do the bet of slow growth, which is favourable to the bond. Investors are indeed likely to be disappointed by recovery in 2010 and then seek assets that provide security. As a result, rates should remain at relatively low levels, unlike what is anticipated by the market currently.

Is this increase in debt not dangerous for the States

What is very worrying, it is to refinance in 2010 compared to the total outstanding debt soaring. It will reach 25 in Germany and France, 10 in normal time. It is payments that States cannot perform that in getting back on the market. They are thus more exposed to liquidity problems which can always occur in markets, especially if the Asian demand deflects. The risk of degradation of note, should bear in mind that agencies do not only take into account the debt. In passing, we believe that one of the France should reach 84 of GDP in 2010, which is therefore. The capacity of countries to return to a financial situation more healthy is a very important notation. In addition, States have a high debt, should also look at the assets that are in the face. For example, the Ireland practically nationalized its banks. Of course, should not progress in the transfer of the risk of privacy in the public sphere in 2010.

Do you think that 2009 emissions took place well

Yes, the balance sheet is reassuring, despite tensions at the beginning of the year, when the amounts raised were already. Even less well rated States in the euro area were able to borrow, offer an attractive price. On the other hand, Governments have had massive recourse to short-term debt, which saw its stock rise by 88 today compared with a year ago. This type of paper is popular and less expensive to the States.