The campaign opens today, to the Japan for the election on 20 September, the President of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). Of the three candidates, Shinzo Abe, spokesman and number two of the Government, Sadakazu Tanigaki, current Minister of finance, and Taro Aso, who holds the portfolio of Foreign Affairs, the first, already assured of 70 of the parliamentary vote, should logically succeed Junichiro Koizumi at the head of the main formation of the Japanese right. September 26, he was named Prime Minister.
Junichiro Koizumi bequeath to his successor a contrasting balance sheet. Its assets, he may enter the return of growth ( 2.5 in 2006, according to the OECD), or to banks waves, on the sinking in 2001. Restructured and even merged for some, their bad debt rate is low (2.9 at March 31, 2006, against 7.8 at March 31, 2003). In addition to reforms delicate and not completed such as the collapse of the post into four entities, the era Koizumi, finally, was marked by a strong will of decentralization and privatization policy. The table would be flattering if there was the de-
yawning deficits, which also
appear in the Recycle Bin. Debt in the long term (centre and regions) is equivalent to 151,3 of nominal GDP, a figure which may exceed 200 if it includes debt short term and a few discreet borrowing, said Shinichi Ichikawa, Credit Switzerland analyst.
The VAT increase
In order to succeed, the successor of Junichiro Koizumi will have to slash spending and increasing taxation, certainly by a VAT increase. This is all the more imperative that the ageing of the population will lead to a sharp increase in health spending in the years to come. Also unpopular VAT increase as necessary, but may be postponed beyond the Senate elections held in July 2007, to not weaken the position of the LDP in Parliament. Screws turn should take place in autumn or early 2008. Shinzo Abe already referred the question of the increase in VAT "at latest". The current Minister of finance, for its part, proposes a gradual increase to 10 by 2010, rather than the 5 currently.
Ambient nationalism
Less than three weeks of the election, economic challenges remain the great absent in the platforms of the candidates. They prefer to surf on the ambient nationalism, multiplying the statements for a "strong Japan", with the encouragement of the very conservative Shinzo Abe. Or pacify, diplomatic relations badly with Junichiro Koizumi, with some Asian capitals. The six visits to the cradle of Japanese nationalism, the Yasukuni temple, provoked strong protests from the countries that suffered Japanese rule during the last war, China and the two Korea. Shinzo Abe is ready to resume the dialogue with Beijing, but initially expected a gesture; Sadakazu Tanigaki rival wants to set up a hot line between the Asian capitals, while Taro Aso proposed to downgrade the Yasukuni Shrine and remove its religious character.
However, the candidates find common ground with the revision of the Constitution and article 9 to remove the term "pacifist nation" and allow the Japan to rearm.
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