It will be enough to just three decades to 4

The arms to fall: "I'm looking to recruit a dozen of young managers and I do not." Their requirements are exorbitant. How do you want it otherwise these new graduates have already apartments and cars offered by their parents ", complained the head of the human relations of NRK, the Norwegian public television. A fact widely shared in the Kingdom of hydrocarbons, where, clearly, "changing times". Viscerally attached to the principles of consensus and social homogeneity of social democracy, the Norwegians are proud of a Scandinavian model that their oil ease allowed to persist despite the blows of battering of globalization: "A balance between an egalitarian distribution coupled with a highly developed social system and flexibility of the economy and the labour market".as defined by Steinar Juel, Chief Economist at Nordea Bank.

A Lutheran farmers management

Comfort would play like an anesthetic The Norway has so far been able to escape the perverse effects related to the possession of the black gold. It has not suffered from the "Dutch disease", when in the Netherlands the sudden development of gas had put at risk the rest of the economy. She has not known mess in many producing countries. But go-ahead concerned observers of this Kingdom yet so calm that life seems to take place there idling.

It will be enough to just three decades to 4.6 million Norwegians traditionally farmers and fishermen of real Kings of oil: they are the richest in the world alongside the Luxembourg (with a GDP per capita of 39.800 euros in 2005, purchasing power parity), and year after year, they take not of the first rank of the classification of the human flag of the UN development program off.

Discovered in the late 1960s, the hen to the egg of the Norway gold lies in the depths of the tumultuous seas of the North, and Barents. Fantastic deposits made this 7 producer countries and 3rd largest exporter of crude, 8 e producer and 3rd world exporter of gas, and likely a major energy player for decades to come.

With this unexpected windfall, Norwegians are left on the right foot. "Here, on reasoning as farmers: it must leave the farm to successors", said Geir Lunde, Director of the Office of Economic Council Econ analysis. These Lutheran elders were therefore right now decided to disconnect the most possible the windfall oil wealth of the rest of the economy and the bench embarked on the preparation of the prospects. "Well you saw that the economy could not digest this influx of foreign currency," remembers Terje Osmundsen, then Adviser to the Prime Minister and now editor of highly-respected economic weekly "Mandagmorgen".

The State began to pay off his debt and, especially, has chosen to pay the whole of the oil revenues in an ad hoc fund. Managed by the Central Bank according to the policy defined by the Ministry of finance, it is fully invested abroad, to 60 in bonds and 40 in shares, without never exceed more than 3 of the capital of a company, and in accordance with ethical principles: Boeing, EADS, Thales or other Wal-Mart was excluded for legal reasons. Each year, the State is authorized to draw approximately 4 of the amount of the Fund it will exceed end of 2006 the 200 billion euros the equivalent of payable profitability. It is therefore not capital!

Thus, balances have been preserved despite the blows of economic expansion fever and the explosion of prosperity. "We are today less poor, but the system has not caused social fracture", says Ola Storeng, columnist for the daily "aftenposten", in egalitarian country where the King enjoys both on the street drinking a cup of coffee and the Prime Minister go to work by bike.

The traditional industry weakened

But if the oil money gave rise to the dynamic, it has also created tensions. The Norway became exporter of capital, the currency is strong, oil and you pay high wages, the financial industry is dynamic and the Oslo Stock Exchange very active. At the same time, the assessment of the Crown have mauled the competitiveness of traditional industrial fabric (fishing, marine armaments, electrochemistry and metallurgy...). The first global industry paper is is thus completely delocalized in Asia. Already, the Norway "had no tradition of sufficient design and industrial environment to develop and commercialize products!", note Steinar Juel. If it is she who has developed the GSM, are its neighbors that have transformed it into industrial asset.

But, overall, the economy is doing well. An average annual growth higher than 3 excluding hydrocarbons and an exceptional level of life are all good reasons for

the Norwegians to have shunned twice, in 1972 and 1994 referendums, a membership to the European Union, seen as a "poor club". Paradox, they have now integrated the acquis communautaire of their main trading partner... without being able to influence its decisions. "The economy is under pressure, everything is tense," said Terje Osmundsen. Even the labour market: 3.7, the unemployment rate is considered a level of full employment, with for corollary a need to recruit in Sweden (services), in Germany (engineers), and Poland in the Baltic countries (shipyards, construction), or Pakistan. Wages soar and progress of at least 3.5 this year: the average earnings of employees reached the equivalent of 3,500 euros gross per month. A visible boom in prices of food products, services and real estate: exorbitant!

The work has no rating

This overheating and porosity of the bulkhead between economy and petroleum concern. "The collected 4 on the Petroleum Fund are additional budgetary expenditure!", said Terje Osmundsen. However, at the present oil price level, the Fund should soon achieve the equivalent of the GDP of the country, or even double by the end of the Decade, "which return to inject into the 8 of current GDP economy!", stressed in Oslo. These financial flows could swell if the proposal of the populist progress party, which won 22 of the vote in the election of the fall of 2005 and became the second formation of the Parliament, came into force: "type" in the Petroleum Fund without taking account of the limit of 4. More and more Norwegians do not understand why they would not benefit from oil revenues even today, while the infrastructure and the efficiency of the public service health especially has not matched that, living in the richest country of the world, they are entitled to expect. And therefore taxes on average, one third of the income at source and a 25 VAT did decline not finally "The Norwegian State is Annuitant, but it does not develop much." It is very heavy, with some redundancy in local communities, a commitment to maintaining activity throughout the territory, and the subsidized farmers in the world turned into quasi-fonctionnaires. "Unlike the Sweden, the Norway did not improve the performance of its public management", said a diplomat.

Touch the oil money seems very dangerous to a large majority of Norwegians, and LO, the main Union. In a country where the State now paying parents so that they do not put their children without tickets to Manger, the list of needs could turn into a Pandora's box. Cautiously, the "oil fund" was recently renamed "pension fund", a way to make it untouchable...

But the harm is already done. Oil wealth helped to delay the reforms necessary, including that of a young retirement system faced with an aging population. An even more hot topic than "If, here everyone works, person!", does with excess said a senior official of the Ministry of Finance: absenteeism, part-time work, generous maternity leave and leave of disability often shorten a professional life theoretically up to 67 years. Parental leave for fathers provoke even beautiful traffic jams of strollers before the bars... It is true that, in that "value", labour happens for many Norwegians after family and recreation, confirm all studies.

In full golden age of consumption, the new generations are more evidence of the same deference than older very ascetic. In these crazy of yachting, luxury boats wet in the fjords around Oslo sometimes reflect behaviour of new rich. "Our greatest danger is to let us wear, to forget the challenges while available all means to change gradually." Should not be asleep! ", prevents Petter Hass Brubakk, Director General of the NHO, Norwegian employers. "The comfort will make us miss the transition to a knowledge economy," likely to relay to "prospects", adds ystein Noreng, Professor at the Ecole supérieure de commerce of Norway. Aggravating factor, if the school managed to preserve the social homogeneity, its level is in free fall and the University is moderately effective. Little incentive to good form, young people turn away from "hard" scientific materials Result: the Norway lack of specialists and displays the lowest level of R & D in all Nordic countries, observed Petter Haas Brubakk. Norwegians are in believed protected, but, today, the spectrum of "poorly Dutch" haunts many spirits in Oslo.