It is the ritual exercise of re-entry for economists. Before the presentation of the finance bill on September 29, seventeen economic institutes, members of the technical group of the Economic Commission of the nation, just send their forecasts to Bercy. These data also collected by "Les Echos", it is clear that a majority of economists are forecasting growth in 2011 of the Government still too optimistic: it has been lowered from 2.5 to 2 in August, but the forecasters anticipate, on average, an increase of 1.5 of the gross domestic product (GDP) next year. Is a rate equivalent to the one expected for 2010, which is really debate ( 1.5 anticipated by economists and the Government).
Remains that this average hides very disparate forecasts. These range from 1 (for the Centre of the expansion) and 2.5 (Goldman Sachs). None anticipated back in recession (even in quarterly rhythm) but on the other hand, almost nobody expects free acceleration. "After a sharp fall and then a small rebound, economy between convalescing, prior to a real recovery," summarizes Denis Ferrand, Director General of Coe-Rexecode.
For 2011, one of the divisions between economists is the analysis of the impact on the growth of strict measures announced in France than in our European trading partners. Pending the presentation of the budget. Goldman Sachs did integrates only "partially" French terms of rigour in its forecasts, "experience has shown the strong inertia of public spending...". ", explains his Economist Natacha Valla. Conversely, BNP Paribas said that the Government will be able to maintain its goal of reducing the deficit to 6 of GDP, but price cuts in spending on growth. "The next few quarters could be marked by a strong technical recovery related to stocks, but growth will then frankly fail because very restrictive economic policy will break any possibility of relay of domestic demand," the view Eric Heyer, an economist at the OFCE.
The evolution of stocks and trade also explains part of gaps of forecasts. "The France is most able to rely on international trade and the effects of stocks which had allowed him out of the recession, opinion Jean-Christophe Caffet, an economist at Natixis, listed among the most pessimistic. Exports are frankly going slow in the wake of world trade and will be penalized by the rise of the euro. But these are they who receive investment in period of recovery. "At the time where the US economy shows signs of weakness, that the dynamism of the emerging countries settle and that Europe has embarked on the remediation of its public finances, the international environment is followed with great attention.
Global slowdown
Relativizing the effects of a global slowdown, Goldman Sachs expects growth "very balanced between consumption of households, investment companies and a trade that should be held". With a close forecast of the Government, Exane BNP Paribas table also on strength of domestic demand. "Whereas private debt is relatively contained in France, the long borrowing rates decline should encourage households and businesses to invest while consumption could be supported by the gradual improvement of the employment." "The profitability is low, which will lead to curb either employment or investment, or wages", on the contrary j. Jean-Christophe Caffet. Bercy for his part defended the realism of the scenario, stressing it corresponds to the rate of growth in the last three quarters.
Larry the propeller head takes his reverenceIt is a paid very expensive divorce says a leaderBut since 2005 the situation has changedOn the first day I found myself in MilanThe Chertier report is especially popular Rue de GrenelleIt fits well with the ideals of the 1960'sAnd its economic performance is much betterHe receives up to 200 dollars 150 euros commissionIt was after the true wishes of fiscal consolidation will be foundIt is a laboratory for future generations
